Yes, the war in Ukraine. It’s a polarized world, with polarized countries and anybody having some opinion about the war is polarised internally.
I will try to give you my perspective. First of all, why is this war? Putin says that the fascists have taken over Ukraine and the Ukrainians are actually Russians, so Russia needs to liberate them from the fascist regime. That is laughable on many levels, but hey, there is WW2 cult in Russia, so that is the language which is understandable by Russians. Actually, the reason for the war is a failing corrupt and cruel regime trying to stay in power. The next question is why the regime is corrupt and failing, that is because the Russians rejected the freedom and democracy offered by Gorgachov and the west and stuck to the imperial sentiment they know so well. No MacDonalds or western goods could convince them otherwise. Some people cannot handle freedom, they need order and discipline and most of all – a strong hand. A dictatorship provides all that and they agree to let the dictator do what dictators do – rule with an iron fist. Internally, no free press and no opposition and externally, creating zones of tension and ultimately war. The second part reinforces the first part by creating a sense of wartime.
What’s next? All the empires follow a similar pattern, they tend to become increasingly brutal internally and try to expand as long as they have the means. The process continues until they expire, that is until they are stopped. The pattern is inevitable. The government needs to promote aggression in order to continue to rule which is the only “raison d’etre” for them (in their thinking). If Ukraine gives up (or losses) Russia will start the next war as long as it accumulates enough resources. …and the next one, and the next… until they are stopped and somehow prevent to continue the pattern. I don’t know what that would look like (maybe dismantle it to smaller states) or demilitarize it after WW2-style Germany and Japan. I don’t see any other way. The paradox is that using nuclear will speed up the process which is the only reason Putin to not use tactical nuclear weapons. Either way, this war is his swan song. If humanity is to survive, it needs to take notice of what is actually happening in order to prevent future precedents.